#Soundbites - Why are the average number of starts and field size declining annually?

Article by Bill Heller

The 2024 Jockey Club Fact Book showed that the average field size run in 2023 races was 7.40, down from 7.59. Thoroughbreds’ average number of starts also dipped from 6.01 to 5.87. Back in 1990, the average field size was 8.91 and the average number of starts 7.94. Why are the average number of starts and field size declining annually?

Todd Pletcher

I think the number starts, in a lot of cases, is management. I think over the years trainers have become more conservative about how many starts horses have with more time between races. More rules about when you can train your horses may be a factor. And the foal crop is having an absolute impact.

Dale Romans

That’s a good question. It’s above my pay grade. I’d say the reduction in foals every year. Also, it’s a lot more difficult to run a horse. More horses are scratched by veterinarians.

Barclay Tagg

The horses just aren’t as hardy as they used to be. Justify, he ran six times and he’s one of the leading sires in the country. And he didn’t start until his three-year-old season. You can’t do basic therapy anymore. These horses are athletes and you need to take care of them. You’ve got to be able to train your horses. They make it really hard. You can’t pinfire your horses’ shins. You can’t blister a horse any more. Horses don’t even feel that. It’s about the calmest thing you can do. They’ve got the wrong people making these decisions.

Wayne Catalano

It’s very simple. The foal crop has been down for a long time. It should be 40,000 (In 1990, it was 40,333; last year an estimated 17,200). Obviously, it’s going to catch up with us. Also, you’ve got the new ruling body. It’s a different game these days. You have people coming up that don’t know how to take care of horses.

Brian Lynch

Is it the foal crop? That would be my answer to that. There’s always concern that the tracks haven’t been the best. There have been more breakdowns than I’ve ever seen. More to the point, it’s the foal crop.

Mark Casse

I think it’s pretty simple. I run over a thousand starts a year. I have to enter over 3,500 times to do that. I would have 50 percent more starts if there were races for me. That tells you. I’m lucky because we have options. I can look at different tracks. But I can have 15 horses in my barn with no races for them.

When I first started, they didn’t publish every trainer’s statistics. They’re all worried about their percentages. Their horses stay in the barn. 

The other thing, in my opinion, the state programs have really hurt, and I’ll tell you why. Fifteen, maybe 20 years ago, I went to California, I never got a long maiden long race. The Cal-bred horses did. That’s another factor. 

Ron Ellis 

The truth is with HISA coming in and veterinary restrictions, we can’t run the horses as often as we used to. All the restrictions and all the veterinary requirements, including expensive scans we’re under now, are certainly one of the reasons. We have a lot more restrictions.

Karl Broberg

Golly, where do you begin? I was looking at the Fact Book last night, and what I was most concerned with was looking at foal crops by region. I began shaking my head. Every region is down. In the future, there’s only going to be racing in Kentucky and New York. It’s returning to the sport of kings. I think what’s missed, due to the economics, is that people are giving up on horses much quicker. That’s a huge factor. Also, there are fewer opportunities. 

Tom Proctor

Wow. You would need more than a sound bite. I’d be forever telling you why. I don’t have a say in how this business goes. There are people who win a zillion races and their opinions don’t matter.

#Soundbites - How are you complying with HISA regulations, and what additional steps are you taking to be compliant?

Words - Bill Heller

Michael Matz

I don’t think we have any choice. It is what it is, and you have to do it. It’s extra work, but it makes a fair playing field. This is what we have to do. I’m sure there are a lot of glitches that will have to be worked out. We just have to comply. I hope it makes a big difference. With the bunch of people caught (cheating), it should have been done a long time ago. 

Richard Mandela

I’m lucky I’ve got my son helping. He showed me yesterday what we will be doing: a lot of recording information—we’re already doing at Santa Anita, ever since a couple years ago when we had problems with horses breaking down. It’s a great improvement, but it involves a lot of recording, inspections, checking, double checking, triple checking. It’s a pain in the neck, but it’s working.

Dale Romans

I’m going to hire a person to do all the HISA stuff. I’m going to put him on staff. I can’t do it myself. I’m going to have an open mind about HISA, but I think there’s going to be some unnecessary repetitive work. They’ll have to figure that out. 

Bruce Levine

Bruce Levine

I haven’t registered yet (as of June 9). I’m going to look at it next week. My wife will do that for me. I’m all for uniform rules, but some of the smaller tracks may have a problem. It’d be nice to have uniform rules. I just don’t know how much horse knowledge they have. They should have had people on the backstretch asking questions. 

Joe Sharp

Basically, it’s been a learning process for everybody. We’re trying to follow the guidelines that they’re giving us. It seems all the kinks haven’t been worked out yet. We’re waiting for changes in a couple of things. We’re registered and trying to sort through what they’re asking. There’s a little lack of clarity in some areas. I think we’re all trying to do the right thing.

Mike Stidham

First of all, I’m complying by just filling out the forms for myself and my horses. It’s quite a bit of data and a lot of paperwork. Everything they’re asking trainers to do has to be documented—what we did, what the vets did. I think there’s a redundancy. Whether or not this is the answer to solve many of the problems of the industry remains to be seen. We’re all going to find out after a period of time. 

Wayne Catalano

I don’t know what to think, to tell you the truth. We’ll do whatever we have to do. I don’t know what difference it’s going to make. People can get around a lot of things.

Pat Kelly

I don’t think we need it. The little guys don’t need it. I only have two horses.  We’ve already done a lot of this with the National THA (National Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association). They want people to do all this, but there’s no funding for it. It’s another layer of government bureaucracy we don’t need. I just don’t see everyone doing this by July 1.  They may have to push the date back. I’ll sign up if I have to.   

Ron Ellis

It’s not a great thing when government gets involved. It seems like a lot of unnecessary red tape. My owners are grumbling. They all have to do paperwork. We’ll see how it works out.

#Soundbites - If you could add one Breeders’ Cup race, what would it be? Or are there enough Breeders’ Cup races already?

By Bill Heller

If you could add one Breeders’ Cup race, what would it be? Or are there enough Breeders’ Cup races already?

Dale Romans

It’s a good question. Let me think for a minute. A filly and mare turf mile. I just think it would be a good race.

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Al Stall

I’ve never thought about that. I’m not sure. It seems like they have it covered. I think it’s fine as is.

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Craig Dollase

Craig Dollase

A straight three-year-old dirt race for fillies and one for the boys. That might be something. They don’t have that. With the situation right now, all the three-year-olds are backed up because of the virus and are racing in the fall. See if that sparks some interest moving forward. It would produce big fields.

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Richard Mandella

Richard Mandella

I remember the first one in one day. It seemed more important with one day. But racing needs desperately to get people involved in it and interested in it. If they want to add another race, have one and then have an auction afterwards. You put up a good purse of $300,000, $400,000 or $500,000. And then anyone can bid on the winner. You would have to have the money in an account and a rule so that the current owner couldn’t bid and keep his horse. You make it the last race of the day. Get the winner, get the bids, and anyone could get the horse. If you did it once, it might start a following. It might get the public involved.

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David Donk

I think they pretty much cover all the divisions. I think it would dilute the quality. I think what they have is sufficient because of the horse population in the country. It’s an owner issue, not a trainer issue. At the end of the day, the buck stops there.

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D. Wayne Lukas

David Donk

I think I’d leave it alone. I don‘t think there’s any other race that would have much significance. I might change the format on Friday and Saturday. I think they definitely need to beef up the Friday card.

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Michael Matz

Michael Matz

Are there any divisions left? I think it’s enough the way it is. You don’t want to water it down anymore than it already is.

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Mark Hennig

They keep changing it so often. They’ve got 14 now. Allowing races strictly for three-year-olds would make the Classic a disaster. Most years, the older horses have been depleted, and the three-year-olds have done well. To me, do a turf mile for fillies and mares just like the boys. …

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